The Likelihood Principle and the Reliability of Experiments†
نویسنده
چکیده
The likelihood principle of Bayesian statistics implies that information about the experimental design from which evidence is collected does not enter into the statistical analysis of the data. In the present paper, I argue that information about the experimental design is nevertheless of value for an assessment of the reliability of the experiment, which is a pre-experimental measure of how well a contemplated experiment is expected to discriminate between hypotheses. I show that reliability assessments enter into Bayesian inquiries and eliminate some extreme cases of optional stopping. Draft of a paper to be presented at the Sixteenth Biennial The Likelihood Principle ! Page 2 Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association in Kansas City, Missouri, October 22-24, 1998. The Likelihood Principle ! Page 3
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